So far, very little feels different in the economy. There’s been a lot of talk about oil prices—which is not surprising given the Persian Gulf’s importance in the natural resource—but the stock markets and commodity prices seem to be steady. Maybe the economy has absorbed so many big shocks in recent months—ranging from tariffs to domestic immigration crackdowns to sizable changes in energy policy to AI advancements—that it’s hard for investors to see how a war in the Middle East could really make a difference on its own. The U.S. has already ramped up military spending, is using new surveillance tools and has reshuffled relationships with many foreign countries.

However, if Trump’s rhetoric holds up, the wartime economy will need to kick in soon. He wrote on Truth Social last night that wars can be fought “forever” because the U.S. has a “virtually unlimited supply” of high-end weapons. At some point, new, big and potentially disruptive choices will have to be made to keep that supply coming—and to commit the resources to keep the war going.

Much of the economy has already seen a slowdown, and companies are likely experiencing it firsthand in their accounts receivable as some entities are taking longer to pay. I spoke with Jared Shulman, CEO and cofounder of AI-powered accounts receivable software platform Daylit, about what CFOs should pay attention to and how they should move forward. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

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Until next time.

Wall Street opened a bit down on Monday, though the major indexes rebounded throughout the day and closed slightly up. Considering that uncertainty about the situation in Iran fueled spikes in gold and silver in recent weeks, the resilience of the market is somewhat surprising—as is the fact that markets closed Monday with gold only increasing a relatively modest 1.7%.

Oil futures crested, as Brent crude spiked to nearly $79 a barrel on Monday morning, reaching its highest level in 12 months. On Monday, crude oil prices on the NYMEX were up about 7%, writes Forbes’ Christopher Helman, who described it as a modest reaction given the amount of oil infrastructure disrupted by the attacks. Helman writes that the relatively minor response means it’s highly unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz—an important shipping lane for oil and fertilizer materials—will be blocked during the conflict.

The increase in pump prices in the U.S. was also relatively slow, with some areas reporting more than $3 per gallon, but other regions of the world saw much greater increases—Europe’s gas prices are up 25% to 30%, writes Forbes senior contributor Peter Cohan.

While much of the economic impact of the war so far is focused on oil prices, its influence on other sectors is likely to be felt and examined soon enough. After all, President Donald Trump suggested the military campaign could last as long as four weeks.

Block, which runs a suite of financial tools including Cash App and Afterpay, had a good quarter—gross profits were up 24% to $2.87 billion, and the company’s total gross profits were up 7% to $993 million. The Twitter cofounder wrote that he believes most companies will come to the same conclusion about AI and make similar moves within the next year. Investors have loved the layoffs, with Block’s stock surging over 18% since the announcement. Forbes senior contributor Cohan writes that investors see the move not as a sign of distress, but as a permanent reduction in fixed costs.

Analysts, however, are not quite as enamored. While there has long been talk that AI will replace jobs, Forbes senior contributor Ron Shevlin writes a layoff this huge and deep is not all about AI. After all, he writes, Block’s headcount grew 2.5x—from about 4,000 employees to more than 10,000—between 2019 and 2025, so there could be some actual right-sizing that needs to be done. He adds that while the layoffs energized Block’s stock price, it will likely be difficult for the company to maintain its critical services with so many skilled workers gone all at once.

Forbes senior contributor Erik Sherman writes that this kind of move is what shareholders want to see, and many executives are under pressure from their boards to do the same. But the collective decision that AI has to work—and therefore employees have to go—doesn’t necessarily end well. Last month, Gartner looked at this trend and predicted that half of the companies that are laying off staff now in anticipation of AI making work more efficient will rehire by 2027. And considering the larger economic impacts of massive layoffs, Sherman writes that maybe this kind of move isn’t worth the gamble.

All that has left companies wondering what comes next, with shoe maker Steve Madden being one of the first to pull its guidance based on tariff uncertainty as it reported earnings in the days after the ruling. Whether companies will be refunded money paid in unlawful tariffs is also an open question.

Trump talked up tariffs in his State of the Union Address last week, declaring that he believes “the tariffs, paid for by foreign countries, will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love.” Experts say that’s impossible. Tariffs raise far less than income tax, writes Forbes senior contributor Howard Gleckman. Individual and corporate income tax will raise an estimated $40.5 trillion over the next decade, while the tariffs Trump wanted would have raised only $2.2 trillion in that time frame.

But one thing that Trump’s tariffs are doing for sure: Changing the way that international trade will be done in the foreseeable future, even after he is out of office. Forbes senior contributor Bill Conerly writes that there will be four big impacts: many more trade restrictions, tariffs and tax policy will be seen through a partisan lens, companies will be more adept at shifting the sourcing of commodities and finished goods, and international trade will be less attractive.

It may be tempting to bring in AI agents to make lower-level management decisions, but is it really a good idea? Here are some questions to ask before delegating responsibility to AI.