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Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon
Footprint and the
Path to 2030
Bitcoinâs shift to sustainable energy and its carbon
footprint outlook for 2030.
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Index
Highlights
Introduction
Methodology
Results
Discussion
Conclusion
References
Page 2
Page 3
Page 5
Page 7
Page 14
Page 15
Page 16
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Highlights
01
02
03
04
Bitcoin is becoming significantly greener. The share of renewable energy in its energy
mix grown from 20% in 2011 to 41% in 2024.
Conversely, coal usage has fallen from 63% in 2011 to 20% in 2024.
By 2030, the Bitcoin network is projected to be at least 70% powered by sustainable
energy sources.
Carbon emissions may still increase in absolute terms for a few more years if bitcoin goes
through very bullish price scenarios before stabilising and finally falling.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Introduction
In recent years, the global focus on environmental sustainability has intensified, particularly within the energy
sector. As the world grapples with the severe and escalating effects of climate change, transitioning from fossil fuels
to renewable energy sources has emerged as a crucial strategy for reducing carbon emissions and mitigating
environmental impacts. This shift not only addresses environmental concerns but also fosters innovation and
economic growth within the clean energy sector.
One of the most pressing challenges in this transition is the energy-intensive nature of certain industries,
particularly cryptocurrency mining. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, operates on a Proof of Work (PoW)
consensus mechanism that requires substantial computational power, and consequently, a significant amount of
energy. This high energy consumption has sparked intense debate about its sustainability, especially as global
energy demands continue to rise (Anandhabalaji et al. 2024).
Blockchain technology, and Bitcoin in particular, has faced criticism for its environmental footprint. The process of
mining Bitcoin involves performing resource-intensive hashing operations, which necessitates the use of powerful
hardware and vast amounts of electricity. Traditionally, much of this electricity has been sourced from fossil fuels,
contributing to increased greenhouse gas emissions. However, the growing adoption of renewable energy presents
a promising avenue to mitigate these environmental concerns (Sedlmeier et al. 2020).
The report provides an analysis of trends in renewable energy adoption within the Bitcoin ecosystem from 2011
to 2024, and present scenarios looking to 2030. During the former period, there was a significant shift towards
sustainable energy sources, with three factors to be credited. First, the reduction of margins in Bitcoin mining
activity, forcing miners towards cheaper energy sources, which are often (and increasingly) renewable, and
sometimes innovative, like otherwise vented and flared methane. Second, the China ban on Bitcoin mining, which
significantly reduced the contribution of carbon-based energy to the Bitcoin hash rate. Third, the general greening
of all energy grids around the world, regardless of Bitcoin-specific phenomena (Ibañez et al, 2024; Ibañez and Freier,
2023). This trend has important implications for energy-intensive industries like cryptocurrency mining, highlighting
the potential for a more sustainable and environmentally friendly future.
Proof of Work and Its Energy Implications
Bitcoinâs underlying consensus mechanism, PoW, plays a critical role in maintaining the networkâs security and
integrity. In the PoW system, miners compete to validate transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain in a
digital race in which the ability to become a block proposer is stochastically tied to the amount of âworkâ conducted
in the form of hashing. This process, known as mining, requires significant computational power, as miners must
perform vast numbers of operations to find the correct solution. The first miner to solve the puzzle is rewarded with
all of a blockâs transaction fees as well as newly created bitcoin, incentivising the continuous operation of mining
equipment.
The energy consumption of this process is immense, because it relies on high-performance hardware running
continuously at almost full capacity. The energy required for mining increases as the network grows and the
difficulty of the hashing problem adjusts to maintain a consistent block generation time.
The PoW mechanism is purposefully designed to be resource-intensive to prevent attacks and ensure network
integrity. As the Bitcoin network grows and more efficient hardware is introduced, the difficulty of the protocol
increases, leading to even greater operational costs. This, combined with increases in bitcoinâs price, secures the
network, but also leads to greater energy demands (Vranken, 2017).
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Recent analyses have highlighted that Bitcoinâs energy consumption rivals that of entire countries, raising alarms
about its carbon footprint (University of Cambridge, 2023). The environmental impact is particularly concerning
given the heavy reliance on non-renewable energy sources for mining operations. The geographical distribution of
mining centers often correlates with regions where electricity is cheaper, sometimes due to the availability of fossil
fuels. Wherever cheap fossil energy outweighs cheap renewable energy, this exacerbates the environmental impact
(Ibañez and Freier, 2023).
Existing Research
Several studies have attempted to quantify Bitcoin's energy consumption, highlighting its environmental impact. The
Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) has been at the forefront of this research, providing
comprehensive data on Bitcoin's energy use through the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI).
Bitcoin's annual energy consumption is comparable to that of some mid-sized countries, such as Argentina or
the Netherlands.
Other researchers, such as those behind the Digiconomist Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index (Digiconomist, 2024),
suggest that Bitcoin's energy consumption is much higher, as they believe much more pessimistic assumptions
should be at the basis of research. Their analysis often paints a more alarming picture of Bitcoinâs environmental
footprint, emphasising the urgent need for sustainable solutions in the cryptocurrency space.
On the other hand, the Digital Assets Research Institute (DA-RI) argues that Digiconomistâs assumptions are not
grounded in a correct understanding of the network and, while CBECIâs data on Bitcoinâs energy consumption is
broadly correct, its carbon footprint is exaggerated to the extreme of misinformation (Collins, 2024), due to the
omission of sustainable off-grid energy sources, the usage of outdated grid intensity factors, the reliance on
outdated hash rate distribution data. Their alternative index, the Bitcoin Energy & Emissions Sustainability Tracker
(BEEST), estimates that 52.6% of Bitcoinâs energy mix is sustainable.
This ongoing debate underscores the complexity of accurately assessing Bitcoin's energy consumption and the
importance of adopting renewable energy sources to mitigate its environmental impact.
Increasing Use of Renewable Energy Sources
Partly as a concerted effort in response to the environmental concerns associated with Bitcoin mining and other
energy-intensive industries, partly as a result of the natural tendency of miners to look for affordable electricity
sources (Ibañez and Freier, 2023), and partly as the outcome from much broader global trends (IRENA, 2024), the
share of energy from renewables has increased steadily in the last decade. This period saw advancements in
renewable energy technologies, which benefitted from greater policy support and increased investment in
sustainable infrastructure.
The adoption of renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectric power has been driven by their
potential to provide cleaner, more sustainable energy solutions. During this period, global renewable energy capacity
has grown, with significant contributions from countries investing in large-scale renewable energy projects.
This growth has been accompanied by a reduction in the cost of renewable energy technologies, making them more
accessible and economically viable (Gielen et al., 2019).
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Methodology
We seek to understand Bitcoinâs past, present and future energy consumption, energy mix and carbon footprint.
We develop a mapping methodology for the first two and a scenario-based forecasting methodology for the latter.
Past and Present
Our methodology builds upon the CBECI by updating its miner location data to reflect recent trends, inspired by the
BEEST model as described in Ibañez et al. (2024). In short, this means that the slightly outdated CBECI miner map
was updated to incorporate recent developments, including the impact of mining bans in China and
Kazakhstan, redistributing the reduced hashrate to other countries proportionately based on their January
2022 shares.
To account for off-grid mining operations, we constructed a comprehensive database of known Bitcoin mining
activities through extensive research and manual data collection, including reviews of US SEC filings, news
articles, and social media updates. We used specific search terms related to sustainable and off-grid Bitcoin mining
and verified findings through company websites and press releases.
In calculating Bitcoin's energy consumption, we consider key parameters such as network hashrate, block subsidy,
transaction fees, mining equipment efficiency, electricity cost, and Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE).
We determined the operational expenses for all identified mining equipment and established the viability based on
profitability thresholds. The energy consumption was estimated by calculating upper and lower bounds using the
energy intensity of the most and least efficient profitable mining equipment, with an average efficiency providing the
best estimate of the Bitcoin network's energy use.
Future
As Bitcoin adoption grows, its energy consumption can increase as well, raising concerns about its environmental
impact. Understanding the future energy footprint of Bitcoin mining is essential for policymakers, industry
stakeholders, and environmental analysts. To address this, we develop a predictive model that estimates Bitcoinâs
energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2030 under different price scenarios.
Our model integrates historical energy consumption trends with future energy mix projections from the World
Energy Outlook 2024 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2024). This report provides insights into the
global electricity mix under three policy-driven scenarios: Stated Policies, Announced Pledges, and Net Zero
Emissions by 2050. By incorporating these projections, we estimate how Bitcoin miningâs carbon intensity will
evolve based on shifts in renewable energy adoption and fossil fuel dependence.
This predictive framework allows us to forecast possible pathways for Bitcoinâs environmental impact to 2030,
examining both the risks associated with increased mining activity and the opportunities presented by cleaner
energy adoption.
To begin, we model Bitcoinâs future energy consumption towards 2030. To do this, we conduct a regression
analysis of past bitcoin price and past bitcoin energy consumption as a first step. As a second step, we estimate a
series of bitcoin price scenarios for the year 2030, assuming a progressive trajectory towards that target price. To
enable continuity with the pre-existing literature, we take similar scenarios to the NYDIG September 2021 model
(Carter & Stevens, 2021). We consider five bitcoin price scenarios for 2030:Stevens, 2021). We consider five bitcoin
price scenarios for 2030:
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
110,000 USD: The âbase priceâ scenario of Carter & Stevens (2021) assumed a 2% per year price growth rate,
leading to a forecast of 60,000 USD in 2030. We apply this rate to a 100,000 USD base price instead, arriving at
the aforementioned 110,000 value.
250,000 USD: The âmedium priceâ scenario of Carter & Stevens, which assumes that bitcoin will achieve roughly
half of goldâs market cap by 2030.
500,000 USD: The âhigh priceâ scenario of Carter & Stevens, assuming that bitcoinâs market cap will be
approximately equal to goldâs.
1,000,000 USD: A âvery bullishâ scenario unforeseen by NYDIG but more popularised in recent years (Braun, 2024;
Chmiel, 2025; Vardai 2025).
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At various price scenarios, we estimate the Bitcoin network's energy consumption, with a particular focus in the
250,000 and 500,000 scenarios. Once energy consumption projections are established, we assess Bitcoinâs
carbon emissions based on the IEAâs global electricity mix predictions under the three policy scenarios. Each of these
scenarios reflects a different degree of commitment to climate action and renewable energy adoption. The Stated
Policies Scenario assumes a continuation of current energy policies without additional climate interventions, leading
to a slower shift toward clean energy. The Announced Pledges Scenario incorporates commitments made by
governments and industries to reduce carbon emissions and invest in renewable energy sources. The global
significance of the transition towards renewable energy is underscored by the United Nations' seventh Sustainable
Development Goal (SDG7), which seeks to "ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for
all" by 2030 (UN, 2015). The most ambitious scenario, Net Zero Emissions by 2050, envisions a rapid transition to
sustainable energy, with aggressive carbon reduction measures in place (IEA, 2024).
For each scenario, we apply the growth rate in the penetration of each energy source estimated by the IEA to
Bitcoinâs current energy mix, using coal and gas as primary and secondary residual variables. The evolution of
flared and vented methane in Bitcoin mining is projected via an autoregression based on past trends insteadÂč.
The result is an energy mix projection for Bitcoin by 2030. We apply life cycle emission factors from Ember Energy
(2022) to the resulting energy mix, in addition to a custom estimation of avoided emissions for methane-based
Bitcoin mining. This allows us to estimate a Bitcoin carbon intensity factor for each of the 2030 scenarios, which can
then be combined with each one of the price scenarios.
Âč This is broadly equivalent to assuming that the share of methane-based mining in Bitcoinâs hash rate will double by 2030.
10,000 USD: While this scenario is no longer considered plausible in 2025, this corresponds to the âlow priceâ
projection of NYDIG in 2021.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Results
Past and Present
Table 1 presents the total energy consumption and the share of renewable energy and coal in Bitcoin mining from
2011 to 2024. It also includes the year-over-year percentage changes in renewable energy and coal usage. This
overview of global Bitcoin energy consumption highlights the increasing shift toward renewable sources.
Our dataset includes total energy consumption figures in terawatt-hours (TWh), along with percentage
breakdowns of energy consumption from key sources such as nuclear energy, fossil fuels (coal, gas, and others) as
well as specific renewable sources, including solar, wind, hydro, bioenergy and others. In addition, it considers energy
generated from flared and vented methane gas.
Over this period, the share of renewable energy in total consumption has seen a steady rise, averaging a 5.76%
increase per year, reflecting sustained global efforts toward cleaner and more sustainable energy solutions. In
contrast, coal consumption has exhibited a sharp decline, with an average annual decrease of 7.94%, signalling
a gradual transition away from fossil fuels. These trends underscore the growing momentum behind renewable
energy adoption and the significant strides made in reducing reliance on coal as part of broader efforts towards both
decarbonization and efficiency gains.
2011 0.002 20.38% 62.94% n/a n/a
2012 0.006 20.66% 62.64% 1.37% -0.48%
2013 0.052 22.23% 60.61% 7.59% -3.24%
2014 1.338 23.60% 58.43% 6.17% -3.60%
2015 1.967 23.52% 58.86% -0.34% 0.73%
2016 3.576 24.30% 57.67% 3.31% -2.02%
2017 3.576 24.94% 56.84% 2.66% -1.44%
2018 26.191 33.00% 50.23% 32.32% -11.62%
2019 32.269 35.19% 47.97% 6.64% -4.50%
2020 48.650 34.06% 45.20% -3.22% -5.78%
2021 53.716 34.82% 33.12% 2.23% -26.73%
2022 70.387 37.25% 24.10% 6.98% -27.24%
2023 96.355 38.37% 21.76% 3.03% -9.69%
2024 139.824 40.74% 20.12% 6.16% -7.56%
Renewable Energy
Consumption %
Year Coal % Renewable Energy
% Change (YoY)
Total Energy
Consumption (TWh)
Coal %
Change (YoY)
Table 1: Bitcoin absolute energy consumption trends and the share of renewable energy therein (nuclear excluded).
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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A trend towards more sustainable energy sources is clear and is illustrated further by Figures 1, 2, and 3. In 2011,
renewables accounted for 20.38% of total energy consumption, a figure that nearly doubled to 40.74% by 2024. This
transition has been accompanied by a significant decline in coal usage, dropping from 62.94% in 2011 to just 20.12%
in 2024, indicating a global move toward cleaner energy alternatives.
Additionally, the composition of renewable energy has diversified over time. Solar and wind energy have seen
remarkable growth, reaching 6.07% and 10.86% of total energy consumption, respectively, by 2024. These trends
reflect advancements in renewable energy technology, policy-driven incentives, and an industry-wide commitment
to sustainability.
Renewable Energy Share in Bitcoinâs Total Energy Consumption
Year
Renewable Energy Share (%)
20
2011
25
30
35
40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Coal Share in Bitcoin's Total Energy Consumption
Year
Coal Share (%)
20
2011
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Figure 1: Renewable energy share in Bitcoin's total energy consumption.
Figure 2: Coal share in Bitcoin's total energy consumption.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
Table 2: Peak absolute annual energy consumption estimations for different bitcoin price scenarios.
Scenario
Low price
Base priceÂČ
Medium price
High price
Very bullish
NYDIG 2021
80 TWh approx.
130 TWh approx.
370 TWh
706 TWhÂł
n/a
This study
26 TWh
216 TWh
482 TWh
958 TWh
1909 TWh
ÂČ This scenario results in a 60,000 USD price by 2030 in NYDIG and a 110,000 USD price by 2030 in this study due to the application of the
same annual growth rate to different starting prices.
Âł For scaling purposes, the reader should note that this represents 0.4% of the global primary energy consumption (Carter & Stevens,
2021: 49).
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Bitcoin Energy Distribution by Souce (2011-2024)
Year
Energy Share (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Figure 3: Bitcoin energy mix by source.
Energy Source
Bioenergy
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Fossil
Other Renewables
Solar
Wind
Flared Methane
Vented Methane
Notably, our findings shows that, in 2024, 1.08% of Bitcoinâs energy consumption is derived from otherwise or
formerly vented methane, and 1.30% is derived from otherwise or formerly flared methane. This implies that already
at present, 2.38% of Bitcoinâs energy consumption is carbon-negative.
Future
Our projections indicate a tension between two opposing forces. On one hand, Bitcoinâs energy mix is poised to
become substantially more sustainable by 2030, in addition to a starting point that is already quite âgreenâ. On the
other hand, Bitcoinâs absolute energy consumption might be significantly higher by this date, depending on bitcoinâs
price (as well as other factors we do not model related to, for example, trends in mining hardware).
Assuming the medium price and high price scenarios, our projections indicate a substantial â but not out of control
â rise in Bitcoinâs energy consumption by 2030, driven by these higher price levels. Table 2 presents the highest
absolute energy consumption estimates for each price scenario.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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As one can observe, our forecasts tend to be slightly higher than NYDIGâs but the scenarios are broadly consistent.
One should also note that NYDIG models more variables on minerâs cost structures, which leads the authors to
postulate that the peak in Bitcoinâs absolute electricity consumption will occur around 2028 instead of 2030. We
gauge NYDIGâs model to be believable. As our model only relies on an affine function based on past price-energy
correlations, this nuance escapes our modelling. It is not our goal to model future Bitcoin price or the date in which
peak energy consumption will be achieved, but to construct scenarios for that peak under which we can calculate
the carbon footprint of the network.
The reader should also note that NYDIG assumes a steady decline in Bitcoinâs energy consumption after 2030, due to
price stabilisation among other factors. We also consider this to be a plausible forecast. This means that the 2030
scenarios presented in this report would likely represent Bitcoinâs peak environmental footprint.
Under the modelled energy consumption levels, the magnitude of the carbon footprint will be largely determined by
the energy mix, which will be influenced by the global energy transition. As renewable energy adoption accelerates
and carbon reduction policies take effect, the carbon intensity of Bitcoin mining is expected to decline, mitigating
some of the negative environmental consequences. Our model dictates that Bitcoinâs energy mix will benefit
more strongly if the global energy transition is more decided, even if there is no particular intent of making Bitcoin
greener in particular. Table 3 presents our findings by overlaying bitcoin price and energy transition scenarios.
In the $250,000 bitcoin price scenario, Bitcoinâs energy consumption is estimated to reach 482.5 TWh in 2030. The
associated carbon emissions differ across policy scenarios:
Under these scenarios, renewable energy is expected to constitute between 59.28% and 74.29% of Bitcoinâs
total electricity usage, depending on the policy scenario. Note that this percentage excludes other sustainable
energy sources such as nuclear energy.
2030 Price
Scenario (USD)
10,000
110,000
250,000
500,000
1,000,000
Stated Policies
(t COâ)
Policy Scenario
4,202,327
35,029,890
78,188,478
155,257,385
309,395,200
Stated Policies
(t COâ)
3,045,006
25,382,662
56,655,380
112,499,519
224,187,797
Net Zero by 2050
(t COâ)
1,914,920
15,962,451
35,628,994
70,747,821
140,985,475
2024
Estimate
(t CO2)
43,861,885
Table 3: Peak annual carbon footprint estimations for different bitcoin price scenarios and IEAâs different energy transition scenarios.
Stated Policies Scenario: 78.2 million tonnes COâ
Announced Pledges Scenario: 56.7 million tonnes COâ
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario: 35.6 million tonnes COâ
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
Bitcoin Carbon Emissions Stated Policies Scenario Announced Pledges Scenario Net Zero Emissions Scenario
Bitcoinâs Total Energy Consumption (TWh)
Year
Total Energy Consumption (TWh)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Figure 4: Bitcoin energy consumption prediction at 250,000 USD price scenario.
Bitcoin Carbon Emissions
Year
Carbon Emissions (Tonnes of CO
â
)
0
20M
40M
60M
80M
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Figure 5: Bitcoin carbon emissions prediction at 250,000 USD price under different policy scenarios.
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For the 500,000 USD price scenario, Bitcoinâs energy demand is estimated to reach 958.1 TWh in 2030. Corresponding
carbon emissions projections are:
Stated Policies Scenario: 155.3 million tonnes COâ
Announced Pledges Scenario: 112.5 million tonnes COâ
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario: 70.7 million tonnes COâ
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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In turn, the proportion of renewable energy in Bitcoin's electricity mix by 2030 is projected to remain stable
across different price scenarios but will vary based on global energy policies and decarbonization efforts. Under
the Stated Policies Scenario, where existing regulations and expected developments continue, renewables are
expected to account for 59.28% of Bitcoinâs energy consumption. In the Announced Pledges Scenario, which factors
in committed climate goals, this share is projected to rise to 65.64%. Meanwhile, in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050
Scenario, which prioritizes aggressive carbon reduction and a clean energy transition, renewables could make
up 74.29% of Bitcoinâs electricity mix. These variations highlight the significant impact of policy decisions on
Bitcoinâs environmental sustainability.
Bitcoinâs Total Energy Consumption (TWh)
Year
Total Energy Consumption (TWh)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Figure 6: Bitcoin energy consumption prediction at $500,000 bitcoin price scenario.
Bitcoin Carbon Emissions Stated Policies Scenario Announced Pledges Scenario Net Zero Emissions Scenario
Bitcoin Carbon Emissions
Year
Carbon Emissions (Tonnes of CO
â
)
0
50M
100M
150M
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Figure 7: Bitcoin carbon emissions prediction at $500,000 bitcoin price under different policy scenarios.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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In the 2021 NYDIG report, Carter and Stevens project three carbon intensity pathways: a high-carbon, base case, and
low-carbon. Four years later, our data and projections show that Bitcoin is decidedly progressing through the
low-carbon pathways in both the stated policies, announced pledges and net zero scenarios. As a result of this,
and of updated IEA predictions for the world at large, we project that peak Bitcoin mining emissions will be lower, as a
percentage of global emissions, than NYDIG did in 2011, even if we predict slightly higher energy consumption.
Table 4 presents these projections:
Renewable Energy Consumption % Stated Policies Scenario Announced Pledges Scenario Net Zero Emissions Scenario
Renewable Energy Share in Bitcoinâs Total Energy Consumption
Year
Renewable Energy Share (%)
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Figure 8: Renewable energy share in Bitcoin's total energy consumption under different policy scenarios. If nuclear energy is also
considered, an additional 9-10 p.p. of sustainable energy should be considered per scenario.
2030 Price
Scenario (USD)
Low price
Base priceâŽ
Medium price
High price
Very bullish
Policy Scenario
0.01%
0.10%
0.22%
0.43%
0.86%
Announced Pledges
0.01%
0.08%
0.18%
0.35%
0.70%
Stated Policies Net Zero by 2050
0.01%
0.07%
0.15%
0.31%
0.61%
NYDIG 2021
(approx.)
0.10%
0.20%
0.50%
0.90%
n/a
⎠As explained before, we apply the same rate of increase than NYDIG but to a different starting price.
Table 4: Peak projected Bitcoin carbon emissions as a percentage of global carbon emissions.
For reference, todayâs emissions represent 0.12% of the global emissions.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Discussion
We produced a series of energy consumption and carbon footprint scenarios for Bitcoin for 2030, meant to illustrate
what Bitcoin mining emissions could represent at their historical peak. The models are broadly comparable to NYDIGâs
2021 forecasts, allowing for updated insights into the field.
Our findings show that the Bitcoin network is becoming decidedly greener, and the trend is on track to continue.
Nevertheless, the absolute carbon footprint of the network may still increase over the next 5 years in high bitcoin
price scenarios, albeit not out of control. Bitcoinâs emissions are not projected to exceed 1% of global emissions
even under pessimistic scenarios.
Furthermore, it is possible that Bitcoinâs emissions fall in absolute terms even with substantial price
appreciation. Our 250,000 USD price scenario, combined with a global net zero pathway would entail a
decrease of approximately 20% in Bitcoinâs absolute emissions.
In terms of model limitations, our model assumes that coal acts as a residual energy source, meaning that any
increase in other energy sources will reduce coal reliance proportionally. However, if coal usage remains more
persistent or if alternative fossil fuels such as natural gas become more dominant, the emissions impact could be
higher than estimated. On the other hand, the correlation between bitcoinâs price and its energy consumption is
based on past observations, without modelling the impact of future shifts in mining economics, including hardware
efficiency gains or alterations in miner incentives. These factors could lead to lower energy consumption particularly
beyond the 2028 halving. While these limitations introduce some uncertainty, they may balance each other out.
Furthermore, our approach provides a range of scenarios that capture key potential outcomes, with the results
maintaining broad compatibility with prior research in the field.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Conclusion
The findings of this report highlight the dual challenges and opportunities faced by Bitcoin mining and other
energy-intensive industries in the context of global energy consumption. Bitcoinâs PoW consensus mechanism,
while essential for network security, has contributed to significant energy demands, raising concerns about its
environmental impact. While this has led a number of actors to be concerned about Bitcoinâs environmental
footprint, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources presents a viable pathway to sustainability.
The data from Nodiens illustrates a clear trend towards greater use of renewable energy sources, driven by
Bitcoinâs built-in economic incentives, as well as advancements in technology and a global push for
sustainability. Bitcoin miners, in particular, stand to benefit from this transition by reducing their carbon
footprint and potentially lowering energy costs with increased variable renewable penetration.
Predictive analysis of Bitcoinâs energy consumption and emissions under different price scenarios for 2030
underscores the critical role of renewable energy adoption. Under all scenarios, a transition towards
renewables and policy-driven decarbonization significantly reduces the carbon footprint of Bitcoin mining.
Furthermore, while Bitcoinâs absolute energy consumption may continue rising under high-price scenarios,
the decarbonisation of electricity grids and improvements in mining efficiency are likely to mitigate its
environmental footprint.
Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
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Mining the Future:
Bitcoinâs Carbon Footprint
and the Path to 2030
Authors :
Aayush Ladda, Data Scientist at DLT Science Foundation
Juan Ignacio Ibañez, General Secretary at the MiCA Crypto Alliance & Chief of Staff
at DLT Science Foundation
Kamil Tylinski, Head of Data Intelligence at Nodiens & Researcher at University College London
Paolo Tasca, PhD, Chief Wizard at Nodiens, Associate Professor at University College London
& Executive Director at University College London, Centre for Blockchain Technologies
