The S&P 500 rose 5.7% for its best week since November 2023…
But it doesn’t matter…
Why?
Because this has been a marketplace from rally to rollover - the whiplash week from hell.
What I'm seeing in market depth right now is something I've never witnessed in decades of trading:
THE DISAPPEARING LIQUIDITY CRISIS: Single-digit depth in S&P futures where there should be hundreds - I had to freeze my screen to show viewers because it looks like a glitch (but it's real)
PROFESSIONAL TRADERS WON'T PUT DOWN THEIR WEAPONS: Despite today's rally, May volatility futures are actually HIGHER (when normally they'd be crushed on a 2% up day)
NON-LINEAR PRICE ACTION: We're jumping from 98 to 99 to 105 to 102 to 91 with no rational progression - less than $1 million could move the S&Ps more than a point
BOND VOLATILITY HIGHEST SINCE 2008: One of the biggest peaks in the history of the bond market - rivaling levels we haven't seen since the financial crisis
We went from trading at 5260 to nearly 5400 in just a few hours today - that's 140 S&P points amongst friends! The expected move was 350 points for the week, and we've traveled every inch of it.
When I see 3 contracts on the offer (that's literally "Captain One Lot rides again"), it tells me no one wants to put up any size because they're terrified of getting whipsawed.
Any institution needing to move size right now would absolutely decimate this marketplace in seconds.
It doesn't matter where the S&Ps are right now - what matters is when we start seeing volatility truly back off. We need to see huge drops in VIX futures back to the 110 region before we can breathe easier.
Trade smart,
Don Kaufman
P.S. Next week is a 4-day trading week with a $240+ expected move. Don't be fooled by the "drop" in volatility - with a day missing, we're still in extreme territory.
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